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Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Place-based economic policies (pt. 1 of 3): Motivation

My goal is to write a series of in-depth posts about geographic inequalities in developed countries and the evidence on the effectiveness of place-based economic policies. There were a few main motivating factors for this discussion: (1) increased attention has been paid to inequality within developed countries since the Great Recession and this discussion would be remiss if it did not address geography; (2) there is no doubt that economic geography has important implications for politics, particularly in the U.S.,where, for example, the Electoral College rather than popular vote governs the election of the president; and (3) place-based economic policies, including significant tax incentives for investments made in low-income communities introduced in the 2017 Republican tax bill, are gaining bipartisan popularity and should be evaluated as to whether they are effective at improving local labor market outcomes, health, education, and human development.

This has, however, proven to be a more difficult and time consuming endeavor than originally expected mainly because a conversation on this topic can cover a lot of material and go in many different directions (and is therefore difficult to organize). But - wanting to write something on this topic today on what would be chef, traveler, documentarian, and father Anthony Bourdain's 63rd birthday - this post will have to be the first in a series.

"Place" continues to be important even in our increasingly globalized world. As much as the world has become more and more connected there is no doubt that place continues to define - particularly for specific socioeconomic and demographic groups - what we can do for fun, what we can eat, where we can work, how much we can earn, and what our living standards are like. It continues to shape our experiences and how we view the world and our places in it. Industry specialization, for example, often defines the labor market opportunities and outcomes that are available in different regions.

I recommend this paper by Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (2015) that illustrates the impact of Chinese import competition on the U.S. labor market outcomes using a local labor market approach. The authors assign a measure of exposure to import competition from China to each local labor market area and utilize an instrumental variable approach to isolate the exogenous variation in this measure across local labor market areas. The reason that there is any variation in exposure to import competition at all is that there are differences in regional industry specialization patterns. These differences have therefore given rise to geographic inequalities within the U.S. whereby regions with import-competing manufacturing were particularly impacted by the growth in trade. These regions are illustrated in the below map taken from the paper. For a presentation on this paper and Chinese import competition you can see Autor's IFS Annual Lecture from 2017.


This is only one example of the way location continues to matter. Another particularly striking image comes from Raj Chetty's work on intergenerational mobility in the U.S. For more on this work, Chetty also presented at the IFS with Annual Lecture from 2014. The figure below illustrates the odds of reaching the top fifth of the income distribution for kids starting from the bottom fifth of the income distribution for metropolitan areas across the country. The differences by region cannot be ignored.


As stated in the New Oxford Handbook on Economic Geography, "This contribution [from economic geographers that economic processes have produced spatial differentiation and inequality] was crucial in counteracting hyper-globalist views, prominent in the 1990s, emphasizing homogenizing forces of globalization, envisaging a global society, and predicting the end of geography in economy, politics, and culture." Today would have been Bourdain's 63rd birthday and it is being celebrated in his memory as Bourdain Day. His show Parts Unknown illustrated the importance of "place" in an increasingly connected world.

Bourdain had a unique, respectful way of showing us - his global audiences - the local. He acknowledged and reported on the economic, social, and political structures that shaped the places he visited. He exhibited an unaffected empathy for the people he met and the lives that they led and this allowed him to share their stories in a way that we - people sitting thousands of miles away - could relate to. He had an effortless way of communicating with people underneath the layers and putting himself on the same level. At the end of the day he showed his audience the way people live in different places and - like a good social scientist - he mused on the reasons why they lived the way they did and how that was changing. Importantly, he wasn't afraid to call out injustices and criticize the perpetrators. A few of my favorite episodes in Parts Unknown - in Pittsburgh and West Virginia - address structural transformation and regional economies.

The decline in U.S. manufacturing - one consequence of globalization and to a lesser extent automation on the labor market - is only one of the components of ongoing structural transformation in the U.S. and other developed countries. Another important and related component is the relative decline in wages among those without a high school or college degree. The geographical significance of these changes is stated aptly in the Handbook, "Over the last eighty years, regional per capita income as a percentage of the national average showed signs of converging until the late 1970s. As much as anything, starting in the late 1970s, repeated recessions, major industrial restructuring and both age- and employment-related migration brought an end to the trend of convergence. Incomes and wealth began to concentrate in selected locations while bleeding out of others, reasserting the importance of places of economic power."

Yet, evidence of low labor mobility in the U.S. makes it more difficult for the population to adjust to changes brought on by structural transformation. Low mobility is hypothesized to to be a function of labor market institutions but it may also be due to changing ties to location and community. The ideas of location and community and what they mean are frequently raised in Bourdain's episodes, particularly in the context of immigrant communities and the decisions that people make to move across cities, states, and countries and their subsequent identities as immigrants. One of my favorite episodes followed Bourdain and fellow celebrity chef Marcus Samuelsson on a trip to Ethiopia. The episode captured the coexistence between Samuelsson's life as a global citizen - born in Ethiopia during the Civil War, adopted by a Swedish family at a young age, and immigrated to the U.S. to apprentice in a New York City restaurant in his early 20s - and his desire to connect with the country of his heritage with which he had little experience as a child.

Ultimately, much of our lives are still defined by the places that we are born and - whether we have the ability to choose or not - live. This is perhaps an unintended consequence of travel shows but was illustrated in Parts Unknown with unique attention to the "how" and "why". There is much that policymakers can do - and are trying to do - to reduce geographic inequalities where they exist. In many cases these efforts reshape the landscape of a place. These changes were discussed, for example, when Bourdain talked with Pittsburgh locals about local development initiatives and the changing identity of the city as it grows into a tech hub. How do these initiatives impact firm growth and investment decisions? To what extent do they lead to changes in labor market, health, and educational outcomes for existing residents? How do they impact labor mobility both in and out of the area? These are a few of the broad questions for future posts.

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

An all-in-one post for the past three months

Instead of doing a deep dive into one topic today, I have a few different points of discussion. First, thank you to Intelligent Economist for including me again this year in the top economics blog list. Second, I'll be joining a PhD program in Economics this fall and I can share my thoughts on the application procedure and offer whatever limited advice I have and hope/encouragement to those thinking about applying. This is particularly for those who have been out of school for more than a few years in job/grad school and those who found economics a little later in life (both of these apply to me). If I had one general piece of advice about PhD preparation, it is that I've found many people shy away from math and believe that only a few "select" individuals with innate abilities can be good at it (if I had a dollar for every economist I ran into while solving problems in a coffee shop who told me about the one genius in their college real analysis class) but - like anything else in life - I think those who are driven, purposeful, and work hard at it are well-rewarded.

One of the previous posts on this blog had discussed minimum wage policy. There wasn't enough time to cover all of the implications of minimum wage in that post, but I recently came across an interesting implication that I had not read about before. Specifically, a paper by Dettling and Hsu (2018) finds that higher minimum wages have significant effects on consumer credit markets (supply of unsecured credit, payday lending, and delinquency on credit payments). Higher minimum wages lead to lower borrowing costs for low income borrowers because they increase the number and favorability of credit card offers and they increase credit limits and decrease delinquencies. As noted in the paper, "labor market outcomes... are just one part of a household's finances. Interactions with consumer credit markets also play a crucial role in many families' economic wellbeing..."

Ethiopia gender diagnostic

The World Bank's Gender Innovation Lab - the team that I work for within the Office of the Chief Economist for Africa - has published a gender diagnostic report for Ethiopia. In this section, these views and interpretations are my own not that of the WB. The report does a few things: it provides evidence of gender gaps in agriculture, self-employment, and wage sectors in Ethiopia based on the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Surveys; it utilizes an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method to connect these gaps to gender gaps in the levels and returns to resources (e.g. fertilizer); and it provides concrete ideas to address the challenges that Ethiopian women face in the labor market. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition decomposes the gender gap into observable differences in factors of production (endowment effect) and unexplained differences in returns to the same observed factors of production (structural effect). It allows us to determine to what extent differences in productivity are due to differences in the levels of resources versus the impact of those resources on productivity. It should be noted that the report is policy-oriented rather than academic in nature.

One example of a finding from this report is that the evidenced gender gap in agricultural productivity in Ethiopia is by and large due to unequal levels of productive factors such as land size and quality, fertilizer and other production inputs, formal credit, and farmer extension services (which can serve as a proxy for agricultural knowledge). When these - and other individual- and household-level observable characteristics - are controlled for, the gender gap in agricultural productivity drops from 36 percent to 6 percent. This is not necessarily the case in other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, where giving female farmers access to the same level of productive factors as male farmers will not close the gender gap. For Ethiopia, we can assess how to close the gaps in factors of production.

For example, access to formal credit is an issue for not only female farmers but male farmers as well. The report on myths in African agriculture that I cited in an earlier post indicated that across the African continent only 6 percent of households used credit - formal or informal - to purchase agricultural inputs. It notes that "rural credit markets need to be deepened to serve farmers better, especially with respect to modern input use." On the other hand, the proliferation of farmer extension services is much greater with nearly 40 percent of male plot managers in Ethiopia having attended extension services recently (but only 23 percent of female plot managers having attended). There is a gender gap in both of these resources but while one has high take-up among male farmers, the other does not and therefore may require broader solutions.

If we focus on women's attendance of extension, we hypothesize based on existing literature and data that there are institutional factors that impact women's attendance and their level of agricultural knowledge more broadly. Namely, women are more time-constrained due to greater responsibilities in the home and are not as mobile due to costs of travel and to safety considerations. Both of these factors - time poverty and more limited mobility - can limit women's access to knowledge because they are not necessarily able to be in a particular place at a particular time to learn.

It is interesting because this underlying theme runs through many discussions about gender gaps in both the developed and developing worlds. A better understanding of how our existing systems are structured around the needs of specific subsets of our population can allow us to devise solutions that can better suit the needs of the others. For example, we posit that access to mobile phone technology can dramatically improve agricultural knowledge among female farmers because - conditional on their access to the technology - they will be able to access information at the time and place that is convenient for them (in Ethiopia, this is particularly challenging due to the limited competition in the telecommunications sector that has hindered mobile phone and internet penetration). Similarly, as this article in the Harvard Business Review illustrates, women in the developed world are advocating for more flexible working arrangements not to reduce hours but to manage workload at their own time and place where possible.

However, there are other important solutions as well. For example, investments into technologies that can alleviate the time poverty that women face in the first place. The tasks of collecting firewood, other fuel, and water for household energy consumption often fall on the women of the household and can take several hours per day in rural areas. Yet, there are interesting companies engaged in East Africa that are focused on addressing these energy consumption needs (some of which are highlighted in this report as examples). They provide alternatives to wood-fuel stoves in the form of solar energy or biodegradable biomass. This is just one example of how an evidence-based finding from the report can be developed to identify areas for future academic research, e.g. how successful are these alternative fuel companies and how effective are their alternatives at addressing women's time poverty? For more on these ideas, do check out the report.

Recession 

There has been an upsurge in talk of recession recently in the popular media. It's not a topic that I've had much experience working on but I'll do my best to point out a few resources and start the conversation.

This article from the Fed lists the points of concern that have gotten analysts, investors, and economists talking in the first place. It lists four important housing market indicators, notes the significance of the housing market has in predicting economic downturns ("based on its forecasting track record - where a housing downturn is necessary but not sufficient for a recession to occur - the risk of broad-based economic recession certainly would be higher if the housing market were to weaken further"), and illustrates that recent trends are consistent with other pre-recessionary periods in 2001 and 2008.

The key is that current estimates of the four indicators listed - 30-year fixed mortgage rate, home sales rate, home-price change, and residential investment - are compared to their averages over the past three years to determine whether there is significant deviation from the average. For example, the below Fed chart shows the deviation in percentage points of the mortgage rate from the preceding three-year average. In the run up to the recessionary periods in 2001 and 2008 there was a rising deviation of the mortgage rate from the three-year average. The green trend for 2019 indicates the same pattern today.

Percentage-Point Deviation of 30-Year Mortgage Rate from 12-Quarter Average

It is unclear in my opinion that the other three indicators track the 2001 and 2008 trendlines as closely as they do here for the mortgage rate but either way I think this is one part of a larger picture. The larger picture is that in 2001 and 2008 these housing market indicators worked in conjunction with a private sector financial deficit (financial deficit from households and firms). This is discussed in an episode of the Exchanges at Goldman Sachs podcast - which I highly recommend - on five areas of credit market risk and how they impact the likelihood of recession. It is just one section from a GS report, "Learning from a Century of US Recessions."

The report itself provides a high-level summary of the various risk areas that lead to economic downturns but does not provide much detail on the individual risk areas. The podcast does a better job of discussing in detail the primary risk area: financial risk and asset bubbles. The GS viewpoint is that the current private sector surplus differentiates the current situation from 2001 and 2008 where the housing market may have been heating up - as it is today - but at the same time the private sector was running a large deficit. These two deficit periods are indicated in the GS figure below.



In the podcast, it is also mentioned that debt growth for households in the mortgage market is in decline - 16 percent inflation adjusted decline - that is unprecedented in the past 60 years. I ran a quick chart using the Fed's data to see the trendlines for all mortgage holders (in blue) and one- to four- family residences (in orange) and they do indicate a slow growth in recent years. How much slower than in the rest of the 30-year period shown here (1990-2018) is not clear since the trendline is still rising. However, it is unsurprising that mortgage debt is rising more slowly now than in the pre-2008 period given tighter credit standards in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

It is possible that an overheating of the housing market and relatively slow mortgage debt growth for households are consistent with one another if mortgage debt and home-ownership are more concentrated today than they were pre-2008. It would be interesting to see whether a smaller segment of the population is driving the uptick in the housing indicators being measured by comparing mortgage debt and home-ownership across the income distribution today and pre-2008. Tighter credit standards and more sluggish recovery among lower- and middle-income households after the 2008 economic downturn, in addition to rising income inequality in the aftermath of the downturn, may explain greater concentration in debt and home-ownership today. This could explain trends in the housing market as well as the private sector financial balance.   














Saturday, May 5, 2018

Trends in household income inequality: comparing the U.S. and Britain on labor, marriage, and government transfers

A recent paper highlighted by the Institute for Fiscal Studies and forthcoming in Journal of Public Economics presents an intriguing look at the relationships between individual labor market outcomes, household composition/spousal labor market outcomes, government tax and transfer systems, and household income inequality in the U.S. vs. Britain over the past four decades.

Blundell et al. (2017)'s descriptive analysis compares individual labor market outcomes in the two countries' by education level, income level, and gender and compares spousal labor market outcomes and government tax and transfer systems to provide a comprehensive look at the components of household income inequality. Their analysis enables us to connect each country's experience of/response to key shared events - including the rise in female labor force participation, the decline in low-skilled labor, and the 2007-08 financial crisis and recession - to household income inequality.

Many of the findings presented confirm existing ideas about the interaction between the tax and transfer system and labor market outcomes. The paper adds value in its use of micro data through 2015 and its use of data that has been standardized to facilitate comparison between the two countries. It adds to a literature on the role of the welfare state in exacerbating or alleviating individual-level labor market inequalities. This literature, and the inequality literature more broadly, formed the crux of the late economist Tony Atkinson's life's work and his numerous contributions in the field built the foundation for modern studies of inequality.

In fact, in his work on redistributive preferences and the welfare state, Atkinson (2000) discusses the responses of various countries to the universal shift in labor markets in industrialized countries away from low-skilled labor: "We are concerned not only with policy before and after a shift in the external circumstances, but also with how different societies respond to the same shift. It is striking that a number of OECD countries have in common a rise in the inequality of market incomes (incomes from earnings and investments) between 1980 and the mid-1990s, but that the outcomes in terms of disposable outcomes (after direct taxes and social transfers) differed."

So as not to diminish the rich nuances in Blundell et al. (2017), I only mention that one of the paper's findings is exactly this: inequalities in market incomes between the two countries are very similar but this is not the case for the disposable incomes at the household level. I discuss the findings below.

Inequality in male labor market outcomes has increased significantly in both countries
  • The two countries' experiences in the Great Recession were different: in the U.S., real incomes for the most part kept pace with inflation whereas Britain experienced a sharp drop in real incomes, particularly for the top income percentiles and the educated. Adjustment in the U.S. came in the form of declines in employment rather than in real wages whereas in Britain employment on both intensive and extensive margins was relatively robust. 
  • I suspect there are a couple reasons for the disparity:
  1. High subsidization of capital vs. labor may bias the U.S. economy towards lower but more productive employment levels (due to higher investments in capital).
  2. Stricter labor market regulation in Britain may imply that adjustments to shocks take the form of real wage declines rather than layoffs and declines in employment.
  3. Differences in the composition of employment between the two countries post-recession (numbers of full-time, part-time, and self-employed workers) may impact the aggregate figures on wage growth and hours worked.
  • This discussion is connected to the authors' second finding: while both countries have experienced a significant rise in male income inequality in the past four decades, in the U.S. this increase is largely driven by male hourly wage inequality whereas in Britain it is driven by fewer hours worked by men at the bottom of the distribution. Therefore while employment was relatively robust in the Britain it is because any response to the recession was part of a longer term trend in decreasing hours for male low-skilled workers on the intensive margin.
    • This is clearly illustrated by the green dotted lines in the two graphs below on hours worked for G.B. Men who left education at or below 16 years of age and U.S. Men with less than high school education. The line on the left for G.B. indicates a steep downward trend beginning 1995.
  • Finally, the authors provide evidence of the wage stagnation in the U.S. continues to make headlines. They state that the only group of male workers that has a higher median real wage today compared to 1979 is those with a college education (compared to those without high school, those with high school, and those with some college who have not seen any improvement to their real wages in the past four decades). 
Lower marriage rates among the bottom half of the income distribution indicate inequalities in household composition and spousal income

Assortativeness of marriage - the tendency for people to marry others who are found in roughly the same area of the wage distribution - is a trend that has only increased in the U.S. in the past twenty years (in Britain it has remained constant). A second, commonly discussed finding is the decline in marriage rates - among the entire wage distribution but more sharply among the lower half of the income distribution including low-skilled and unemployed men. Together the findings indicate that, rather than alleviate male earnings inequalities, the marriage market has likely amplified those inequalities.

The tax and transfer system in Britain has done a much better job of ensuring that the inequality in male labor market outcomes has not translated into large household income inequalities

The following image presented by the authors is the most striking:  while male earnings inequality (red dotted line) has increased steadily in both countries and perhaps even more sharply in Britain, household net income inequality (labor earnings plus government transfers minus taxes) in Britain has not grown in the past twenty years. This is not the case in the U.S. indicating that tax and transfer systems in Britain have done a much better job at ensuring that disparities in male labor market outcomes have not translated into as large disparities in net household income. 


The authors identify the following when discussing the disparity in tax and transfer outcomes between the U.S. and Britain:
  • Much more generous social welfare programs in Britain vs. the U.S. in particular due to successive Labour governments from 1997-2010. 
    • The one and very important exception being the recessionary period: in the U.S., average transfer generosity increased greatly in response to the recession and were in place through the six-year recessionary period whereas in Britain, fiscal consolidation policies beginning in 2011 indicated a reduction in social programs. 
  • Welfare policy in Britain that does not link transfers to work status indicating net income growth of non-workers whereas this is not the case in the U.S. where the generosity of welfare for non-working families declined greatly in the past two decades.
Follow-up questions 

The study raises several further points of research/questions to be answered by existing research - 

What are the differences in structural factors that led the decline in low-skilled labor to manifest itself as a decline in hours worked in Britain vs. a stagnation of real wages in the U.S.? In Britain, real wages experienced a sharp decline only during the recession and prior to the recession were even on the uptick for most men. Yet their hours of work had been declining for decades. To research this further we would need to look at the labor force participation rates of low-skilled men to determine whether the U.S. experienced similar decreases in employment (though on the extensive rather than intensive margin) that are masked by lower labor force participation rates among low-skilled men.

Through what channels did monetary and fiscal policy in the U.S. in the recessionary period contribute to the stabilization of real wages? The decline in real wages in the recession and post-recession Britain has been attributed to a number of factors - high inflation due to high energy prices, expansion of lower-paid, self-employment or part-time jobs rather than full-time jobs, limited investment in capital and as a result low levels of productivity - a number of which should also be issues in the U.S.

Though the study doesn't delve deeply into female labor market outcomes it paints an interesting picture of stability in women's employment and wages over the past forty years and particularly during the recession. This is likely due to higher relative attrition of women from the labor force at times when jobs are hard to be found given that men remain the main earners in most households, but again we would need to see the labor force participation rates to be sure. 

Sources
  1. Blundell, R., Joyce, R., Keiller, A.N., Ziliak, J.P. (2017). Income inequality and the labour market in Britain and the US. Journal of Public Economics. 
  2. Atkinson, A. (2000). The welfare state, budgetary pressure and labour market shifts. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
  3. Atkinson, A. (1992). Towards a European social safety net. Fiscal Studies.